Population growth - 2008

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Indicator description

What does the Data tell us for 2008

The population of the Shoalhaven continues to grow steadily, however according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) the growth rate has since 1991 been continually decreasing.

Table 34 - Population Increase 1986 - 2006

Period

Population at end

Growth

Annual Compound Growth Rate

1986-1991

70,460

12,810

4.09%

1991-1996

79,068

8,608

2.33%

1996-2001

87,650

8,582

2.08%

2001-2006

92,196

4,546

1.02%

Source: Est. Residential Population ABS. (based on Census)

Since 1996 the ABS has estimated that the growth rate trend has in general terms continued to decline.

Table 35 - Population Increase since last Census

Period

Population at end

Growth

Annual Compound Growth Rate

1997-1998

81,253

898

1.18%

1998-1999

         82,523

1,270

1.56%

1999-2000

85,716

1,849

2.71%

2000-2001

87,650

1,934

2.56%

2001-2002

88,889

1,239

2.27%

2002-2003

89,777

888

2.02%

2003-2004

90,371

594

1.79%

2004-2005

91,471

1,100

1.71%

2005-2006*

92,196

725

1.59%

2006-2007

92,880

684

1.50%

* Last Census Year                                                              Source: Estimated Resident Population ABS

Care should be taken with estimated residential population figures for the years after a census count, as past experience indicates that the ABS sometimes adjusted their estimates when the subsequent next census figure becomes available. The most important factor in the population growth is the migration. The following table shows the proportion of growth that can be sustainable to net in-migration

Table 36 - Components of Population Growth

 

1981/86

1986/91

1991/96

1996/2001

2001/2004

Total Population

9,050

12,810

8,608

8,582

4,546

Natural Increase

2,104

2,131

2,044

790

138

Net immigration

6,946

10,629

6,564

7,792

4,408

Since 2001, the gap between births and deaths has narrowed considerably, due in part to an increase in the aged population. Consequently in this period the Shoalhaven has experienced marginal natural growth.

It should be noted that estimations of migration are very difficult to make because it is unknown how many of the non-permanently occupied dwellings change their status. 

Consequently estimations of growth between census years are also difficult to forecast. Council’s own low growth estimation is shown below.

Table 37 - Growth Projection to 2021

Year

2011

2016

2021

Population

98,758

106,296

113,774

Note: Council takes no responsibility for the use of these projections.

Distribution of Population Growth

The distribution of growth is important in the Shoalhaven rather than the density of population.

Table 38 - Distribution of Population Growth 1986 - 2006

Year

Nowra / Bomaderry

Bay and Basin *

Milton / Ulladulla

 

No

Growth Rate %

No

Growth Rate %

No

Growth Rate %

1986

19,553

1.8

7,038

7.1

8,305

4.2

1991

21,932

2.3

9,311

5.8

9,987

3.8

1996

23,823

1.7

11,560

4.4

10,698

1.38

2001

25,322

1.2

13,643

3.37

11,734

1.9

2006

27,846

1.8

15,666

2.58

14,443

3.75

* Includes Huskisson, Vincentia, Basin View, Erowal Bay, Old Erowal Bay, St Georges Basin and Sanctuary Point.

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