Population growth - 2005

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Indicator description

What does the Data tell us for 2005

The population of the Shoalhaven continues to grow steadily, however according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) the growth has since 1991 been continually decreasing.

Table 34 - Population Increase 1981 - 2001

Period

Population at end

Growth

Annual Compound Growth Rate

1981-1986

57,650

9,050

3.47%

1986-1991

70,460

12,810

4.09%

1991-1996

79,068

8,608

2.33%
1996-2001 87,650 8,582 2.08%

Source: Est. Residential Population ABS. (based on Census)

Since 1996 the ABS have estimated that the growth rate trend has in general terms continued to decline but in recent times the growth increment has been relatively constant with minor ups and downs due to annual fluctuations.

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Table 35 - Population Increase since last Census

Period

Population at end

Growth

Annual Compound Growth Rate

1996-1997

80,358

1,287

1.63%

1997-1998

81,253

898

1.18%

1998-1999

82,523

1,270

1.56%
1999-2000 85,716 1,849 2.20%
2000-2001 87,650 1,934 2.25%
2001-2002 89,317 1,667 1.90%
2002-2003 90,615 1,298 1.45%
2003-2004* 91,765 1,150 1.27%

* Preliminary 2004 Estimate             Source: Estimated Resident Population ABS

Care should be taken with estimated residential population figures for the years after a census count as past experience indicates that the ABS sometimes adjusted their estimates when the subsequent next census figure becomes available. The most important factor in the population growth is the migration. The following table shows the proportion of growth that can be sustainable to net in migration

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Table 36 - Components of Population Growth

 

1976/81

1981/86

1986/91

1991/96

 1996/01

Total Population

9,600

9,050

12,810

8,608

 8,582

Natural Increase

1,762

2,104

2,131

2,044

 790

Net immigration

7,838

6,946

10,629

6,564

 7,792

There has been a rapid slowing of natural growth in recent years.  While there was a marginal upturn of live births in 2001-02, this was negated by an increase in deaths.  Consequently in this period the Shoalhaven has experienced negative natural growth.

It should be noted that estimations of migration are very difficult to make because it is unknown how many of the non permanently occupied dwellings change their status. 

Consequently estimations of growth between census years is also difficult to forecast. Council’s own low growth estimation is shown below.

Table 37 - Growth Projection to 2016 (Revised)

Year

2006

2011

2016

Population

95,590

 102,620 109,166

Note: Council takes no responsibility for the use of these projections.

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Distribution of Population Growth

The distribution of growth is important in the Shoalhaven rather than the density of population.

Table 38 - Distribution of Population Growth 1986 - 2001

Year

Nowra /Bomaderry

Bay and Basin *

Milton /Ulladulla

 

No

Growth Rate %

No

Growth Rate %

No

Growth Rate %

1986

19,553

1.8

7,038

7.1

8,305

4.2

1991

21,932

2.3

9,311

5.8

9,987

3.8

1996

23,823

1.7

11,560

4.4

10,698

1.38

2001

 25,322 1.2 13,643 3.37 11,734 1.9

* Includes Huskisson, Vincentia, Basin View, Erowal Bay, Old Erowal Bay, St Georges Basin and Sanctuary Point.

Since 2001, the ABS have indicated declining growth up to 2003.  These figures should be treated with caution as Council statistics indicate that there is now an upward growth trend which may indicate another cycle of higher growth.

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